Forex News & Analysis

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Central Banks

ECB Holds Rates Steady as Eurozone Inflation Shows Signs of Stabilizing

January 25, 2025

The European Central Bank maintained its main refinancing rate at 3.40% during its latest monetary policy meeting, as policymakers assess the impact of previous rate hikes on inflation and economic growth. ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized that the central bank remains committed to bringing inflation back to its 2% target, while acknowledging recent signs of economic stabilization across the eurozone. The decision comes as core inflation has shown modest declines, falling to 2.7% in December from 2.9% in November. Financial markets reacted positively to the decision, with the euro gaining 0.4% against the US dollar immediately following the announcement. Lagarde indicated that future policy decisions will remain data-dependent, with particular attention to wage growth and underlying inflation pressures.

Platform Updates

MetaTrader 5 Launches AI-Powered Trading Signals Marketplace

June 10, 2025

MetaQuotes has announced the launch of an AI-powered trading signals marketplace on MetaTrader 5, allowing traders to subscribe to advanced algorithmic strategies and copy trades in real time. The new marketplace leverages machine learning to rank and recommend top-performing signal providers based on risk-adjusted returns, drawdown, and user reviews. This innovation aims to democratize access to institutional-grade trading strategies for retail traders. The update is now live globally, with MetaQuotes promising further enhancements to transparency and analytics in the coming months.

Central Banks

Federal Reserve Signals Potential Rate Cuts Amid Inflation Progress

January 15, 2025

The Federal Reserve has indicated a more dovish stance in its latest meeting minutes, suggesting potential interest rate cuts in the coming months as inflation shows continued progress toward the 2% target. Recent CPI data revealed a 3.1% year-over-year inflation rate, down from 3.4% in the previous month. Fed Chair Powell emphasized that while the central bank remains data-dependent, the consistent decline in price pressures provides room for monetary policy adjustments. The US Dollar weakened against major currencies following the announcement, with EUR/USD gaining 0.8% and GBP/USD rising 0.6%. Traders are now pricing in a 75% probability of a 25 basis point cut at the next FOMC meeting.

Economic News

US Q1 GDP Contracts Sharply

May 5, 2025

The U.S. Commerce Department reported that real GDP fell at a 0.3% annualized pace in Q1 2025 – the first quarterly contraction since early 2022. The decline largely reflected a surge in imports as businesses front‑loaded purchases ahead of U.S. tariffs. Consumer spending still grew, albeit more slowly. The weak GDP print undercut the dollar's recent strength amid trade‑war uncertainty. Economists say the report reinforces views that the Fed will remain patient, keeping rates on hold until trade disruptions ease (around the time of the June meeting).

Central Banks

BoJ Keeps Policy Steady Amid Trade Uncertainty

May 2, 2025

On May 1, the Bank of Japan held its short‑term rate at 0.5% as widely expected. It sharply cut its growth forecasts, citing rising U.S. trade tensions and their hit to exports, but maintained that inflation is still on track to reach the 2% target in coming years. In response, Japanese bond yields and the yen fell as markets pushed out expectations for early tightening. Governor Ueda said the BOJ will remain flexible, noting that inflation and wage growth may slow before recovering, suggesting any further hikes will be gradual.

Central Banks

BoC Pauses Rate Cuts, CAD Strengthens

April 28, 2025

In mid-April, the Bank of Canada surprised some by pausing its easing cycle, keeping its overnight rate at 2.75%. Governor Macklem cited uncertainty from U.S. tariffs and offered alternative economic scenarios, but stressed the bank was ready to "act decisively" if needed. The decision prompted a relief rally in the Canadian dollar: CAD rose about 0.5% to roughly C$1.3884 per USD immediately after the announcement. Markets now price about even odds of another pause in June. Investors see the BoC's cautious stance as preparing to counter any further trade‑driven slowdown.

Economic News

Eurozone Economy Exceeds Forecasts

April 25, 2025

Eurostat's flash data showed the euro‑area economy grew by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2025, above the 0.2% consensus estimate. Strong export demand (especially in Spain and Italy) drove the beat. Excluding a special 3.2% surge in Ireland (largely tax‑related), growth was more modest – Germany +0.2%, France +0.1%, Italy +0.3%. The better‑than-expected GDP partly reflects pre-tariff global trade flows. Inflation has continued easing (German CPI ~2.1%). Together these figures support the ECB's view that price pressures are near target, keeping markets focused on further rate cuts to bolster the fragile recovery.

Central Banks

Turkey's Central Bank Tightens Aggressively

April 20, 2025

Turkey's central bank stunned markets on April 17 by hiking its one-week repo rate by 350 basis points to 46%. This surprise reversal of four months of rate cuts was aimed at defending the plunging lira after political turmoil (Istanbul's mayoral arrest) sent the currency briefly to a record low of ~₺42/USD. The move stabilized the lira: it immediately rebounded to about ₺38.1 per dollar as investors took profits. The CBRT noted that inflation expectations remain elevated and signaled that more tightening may follow if disinflation stalls.

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