31 / 07 / 2017 | 普通

今天要注意的是:对冲基金开立油位

这个月对于原油来说很不错,尽管石油输出国组织表现平平,加上减少成员国的原油产量,使其未能达到之前的计划目标-原油价格达到去年的高点,目前在该地区原油价格高于50美元一桶。

德国6月份的零售额(月度)也超过了预期和预测,进一步预测:欧洲联盟的增长不仅是德拉吉(Draghi)在新闻发布会上表示慰问英国推出奥盟时代市场情绪的情况。

尽管欧元似乎看起来很不好以及在美国的成长故事非常的不同,相对于现在的强势货币美元已经跌至几乎是三年的最低点。特朗普政府看起来无法进行医疗改革,表明他们的经济改革将被批判,尤其是考虑到在当时竞选时的承诺。结合这些不确定性可以说明特朗普的总统位置将不稳定,未来可能面临辞职、被调查以及主要的政治玩家对其角色的重新定位。此外还有一个因素导致了美元的大幅下跌-美联储表述提高利率是可以逐渐的避免过高的工资负担以及通货膨胀。不仅是欧元赢得了对抗美元,甚至是连现在不稳定的英镑都赢得了对抗美元的主要货币位置
这个星期似乎比以前更加流动,特别是对于欧元,澳元,美元,英镑。这些经济日程安排:

731日星期一
欧元 - 七月消费物价指数(年增率
澳元 - 利率决定和声明
 
81日星期二
欧元 - 国内生产总值第二季度(年增率
美元 -  7美国供应管理协会制造业采购经理人指数
USD  -  7美国供应管理协会支付价格
 
82日星期三
欧元 - 非货币政策的欧洲央行会议
 
83日星期四
英镑 - 英国央行资产购买设施
英镑 - 英国央行利率决定
英镑 - 英国央行货币政策委员会表决不变
英镑 - 英国央行货币政策委员会投票降息
英镑 - 英国央行货币政策委员会投票升息
英镑 - 英国央行会议记录
 

83日星期五
澳元 - 澳大利亚央行货币政策声明
美元 - 7月非农
美元 - 7月失业率
加元 - 7月份就业净变化
加元 - 7月失业率
 
本文包含STO投资研究室的个人观点和意见,并不构成投资建议。
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31 / 07 / 2017 | 市场新闻

Fundamental Analysis 2017.07.31 – EUR/CHF, EUR, BoE and Oil

Market recap
EUR/CHF remains front and center in investors’ minds. This wasn’t the case even just a week ago - due to its lower liquidity made the currency highly susceptible to buy or sell trend, that might be the reason investors are looking at the Franc in a new light. Otherwise no fundamental reason should cause this –Switzerland’s stable economy is a reason the currency is considered a safe-have. Speculation might also be fueling this trend with investors waiting for an ECB to hike rates while the SNB holds rates creating a shift in the currency pair – or alternatively SNB could be manipulating the trend, via the stronger EUR, to boost the pair. It might also be plain serendipity – trading apps seeing an calculable upwards movement and buying.
The next upcoming resistance is speculated to be to be in the region 1.17, this is also the SNB estimation for a breakeven – i.e. the level that the central bank can feasibly sell its EUR reserve while making a profit. Although we can assume that market is going to resist it.
Oil although usually volatile it is showing significant growth in the EU – which also experienced its best week since last year. Crude oil reserves in the US are being significantly depleted with June having the highest consumption of fossil fuels for over a decade. Both Kuwait and UAE have promised to continue their quelling of production and actually S. Arabia asked other OPEC countries to keep to their promised amount of lowered production.  Another reason behind the boost was the news that addition of US oil rigs has drastically slowed, indicating towards a peak of US supplies.
https://media.clawshorns.com/uploads/files/97d3921930f1df1ff7d08826aa3ae803.png
 
 
The much higher than expected May GDP gain on Friday could have bolstered the CAD parallel gain. Markets will also be expecting the industrial product price index to see if this trend will continue or cease shortly.

Today’s market
The European day gets under way with the Bank of England data on UK mortgage approvals. They’re expected to fall slightly (around 200, or -0.31%) from the previous month. This would surprise no one, as the British Bankers’ Association mortgage figures were down by 87, or -0.22%. I would expect that if the number comes in around as expected it would be uneventful for the pound.

 
 
CPI out of the EU is expected shortly which is a significant data point for EUR traders . Germany released its year-on-year rate of growth of its harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP), otherwise known as the CPI index using a EU standard to calculate, and this figure remained stable. Being one of the EU’s most robust and influential economies, this had led investors to assume that the CPI across the Union might remain stable.


 
 
Canada’s equivalent to their producer price index is the industrial product prices. The expectation at the moment is a drop in month-on-month This might indicate  pressure to increase interest rates in Canada.


 
  
 



 This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice.
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31 / 07 / 2017 | 技术分析

Technical Analysis 2017.07.31 - USD/JPY

Technical Analysis 2017.07.31 - USD/JPY

Current trend
It seems that the trend of last three weeks continues today – with the JPY gaining against the USD.
The BoJ sustained its dovish stance regarding rates – and held the interest rate at its previous level. The previous week it also announced it monetary policy, which will mainly focus on bolstering economic consumer activity by maintaining a soft policy. To further help this prerogative the BoJ to inject credit into their banking system and sustaining a zero return on their bonds.
Their previous 2% inflation goal was of course extended to the 2019-2020 year.
USD/JPY is again slipping though largely due to a weakening dollar, which revisited its year minimum the previous week. This is largely due to  to the economic and political instability recently, and the Fed’s statements regarding a gradual interest hike, instead of a immediate hike.
USA GDP data was also announced, reaching its maximum growth until now.
The practical free-fall of the pair a 200 points fall in fact, reaching 110.50 set as the strong support, with the next one being suspected to be around 109.00–109.60.

Support and resistance
Support levels USD/JPY: 110.50, 109.60, 109.00, 108.10.
Resistance levels USD/JPY: 111.50, 112.50, 113.20.


 
 

 
 This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice.
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28 / 07 / 2017 | 普通

What to Look out for Today 2017.07.28 – Chinese/US Trade Deteriorating?

The USD has had a tumultuous few weeks – the Fed’s decision to hold interest rates at current levels, statements saying that interest rate hikes will be gradual and of course the Trump’s administration unsuccessful attempt to once again usurp so-called Obamacare (and final attempt according to a statement made by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell).

Now the USD also has to deal with the potential market blowback as a result of straining trade with China. U.S. acquisitions in China have fallen to the lowest they’ve been since 2003, due largely to Chinese government regulations (i.e. the infamous banning of cellphones produced by Chinese companies under the premise that they have included security “back-doors” that allow surveillance of users). The frictions go beyond governmental intervention though – Trump promised a repatriation of manufacturing to the US – facilities that are largely based in China. Compounding these intergovernmental frictions – was another (as of yet unfulfilled) promise to impose staggering tariffs on Chinese steel.

Although there is some dollar-positive news today – Economic growth forecast for the second quarter might yield an increase in the area of 2.9%. Although we still have a few hours left until the official report of the GDP – this might actually help bolster the USD and currency pairs involving it before the weekend.

This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice.
 
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28 / 07 / 2017 | 技术分析

技术分析 2017年7月28日 - 英镑/美元加强或修正?

英镑在本周从英国国内生产总值(26日发布)出现了增长,第二季度增长了0.3%。美联储持有其目前的利率,导致美元价格下跌,反过来强化英镑/美元,达10个月最高。
新闻出炉美国的基本面是有问题的,但是美元的价格有所上涨,这使得大多数主要(和一些次要的)货币对,包括英镑/美元在内。英镑/美元在日图上进入粉红色频道上限的区域。

贸易商将在08:00 格林尼治标准时间加两个小时发布的全国房屋价格杂志上查询,预计目前预计将略有下降。
今天,美国国内生产总值计划在14:30(格林尼治标准时间加两个小时)发布,预计该指数将显示1.2%的显着增长。随着原油生产情绪的波动,商品交易商的另一个重大事件 - 贝克休斯石油钻井计划将于19:00(格林尼治标准时间加两个小时)发布。
预计会有轻微的纠正。
支撑和阻力
支撑水平 英镑/美元: 1.3040, 1.2990, 1.2865, 1.2780.
阻力水平英镑/美元: 1.3110, 1.3150, 1.3200.1.3280.
 
https://media.clawshorns.com/uploads/files/260ac1bb70dc7830c2a8432e2a0de8a2.png
 
 
https://media.clawshorns.com/uploads/files/f1205b474bd5517cc6304f2d7fc5d960.png
 
 


本文包含STO投资研究室的个人观点和意见,并不构成投资建议。
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28 / 07 / 2017 | 市场新闻

Fundamental Analysis 2017.07.28 – US FOMC & GDP

Previous Days’ Review

The dollar partially saw a reversion when the FOMC completed its meeting. We saw a sharp drop in the price of USD upon the conclusion of the FOMC’s meeting, even though the post-meeting statements didn’t say anything unknown to markets – or wasn’t mentioned previously. The USD still managed to recover. This might have been assited slightly by the durable goods order that was very strong, wholesale inventories also surpassed forecasts and another number surpassing expectations  was the trade deficit which bolstered sentiment regarding today’s US 2Q GDP. Although the market estimation is at 2%, the Atlanta Fed increased its 2Q GDPNow estimated to reach an ambitious 2.8%.

EUR/CHF, saw an EUR-positive trend – as a lack of CHF liquidity causes observable fluctuation even from moderate buy or sell trends. Unfortunately for the CHF the trend was to sell – impacting the currency negatively.

GBP saw a gain after CBI distributive trade survey also surpassed expectations, but unfortunately lost its gain after the announcement of the new BoE Deputy Governor Sir David Ramsden. Ramsden is expected to against the grain – which up to now has been a dovish stance – further adding to the general volatility plaguing the GBP since the enactment of article 50 launching the Brexit process.

Today’s market

With the opening of the markets, investors will be on the outlook for Saxony’s (the German State’s) CPI. Analysts have notice that the inflation rate in Saxony seems to be tightly correlated with the national harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP)  in the arena of 88% accuracy post crisis, and in turn Germany’s HICP is tightly correlated and a forecaster of the CPI across the EU, making the small state’s CPI a significant event. No forecasts are available as of yet regarding this figure though.

Nationwide CPI though is expected to drop slightly, and even though the ECB has indicated towards an imminent rate hike this might not be feasible to implement it in the near future. ECB President Draghi has gone on record stating inflation should reach their 2% target, but has at the moment failed to do so. At the moment, the market hasn’t decided on its sentiment regarding the EUR, we will have to wait until market opening to discern this. 

The US 2Q GDP Figure showed an increase in consumer spending and a ramped-up inventory accumulation which is anticipated to facilitate growth and ultimately propel it to 2.5%. That leaves growth in the first half of 2017 floating in the region of 2.0%, which doesn’t deviate far from the average since the end of the Global Financial Crises in 2010. Empirical proof of growth should be a positive effect for the dollar.

Of course, the annual revisions for the past three year’s GDP including this year’s Q1 might cause movement, but again this is something that will have to be seen and not concrete. 
 
This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice.
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27 / 07 / 2017 | 技术分析

Technical Analysis 2017.07.27 - AUD/JPY & GBP/JPY

Technical Analysis 2017.07.27 - AUD/JPY & GBP/JPY
 

 
AUD/JPY
 
The above chart is showing the Kijun-sen below the Tenkan-sen line, both lines have an upward vector. The Chikou Span confirmative line is over the AUD/JPY, indicating towards a ascending cloud.  AUD/JPY has surpassed both the Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen; this means the potential bullish trend still has traction. The most proximate support  is delineated by Tenkan-sen at 88.447. Likewise the most proximate resistance is set by Tenkan-sen at 90.370.
 
 

 
GBP/JPY
 
The Kijun-sen is currently under the Tenkan-sen, the blue has an upward vector, while the red remains parallel to the bottom of the chart. The Chikou Span confirmative line is over the current price of the currency pair, indicating an ascending cloud. The pair seems to have corrected back to Tenkan-sen. The most proximate support is delineated by the Tenkan-sen line at 145.788. The resistance level are the previous maximums of Chikou Span line set at 147.347.
 
This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice.
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27 / 07 / 2017 | 普通

What to Look out for Today 2017.07.27 – Fed Decision Causes Dollar Drop

Fsblog Fsplit1498
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27 / 07 / 2017 | 市场新闻

Fundamental Analysis 2017.07.27 – Fed Decision Impacts USD

The US dollar slipped against most other major currency after the Fed’s meeting yesterday. The decision Yellen and her board made was to keep interest rate at the current level of 1.25%, and well under their target of 2%, compounding this effect was the Fed’s statement saying it intends to reduce its balance sheet – further perturbing investors. As previously stated by Yellen - the FOMC intends to perform an increase of the interest rate gradually to avoid outpacing inflation and salaries, At the time of writing this article the USD drop is slowing, and there’s a possibility of a full reversal turning into a correction by the end of the trading day.

EUR/USD reached its 2015 high at 1.1775.

GBP/USD reached last year’s high at 1.3155 AUD/USD reached its 2015 level -  0.8060. The currency then slipped to 110.77, but and partially recovered to 110.00.

As expected in lieu of the USD volatility metals gained as risk aversion to the instability created by both not knowing the interest rate hike and reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet timeline. Gold saw levels reaching 1264.50, silver reached16.70, both of which are levels the metals trading at today.

Continuing the previous days’ trend Oil prices held without observable or significant fluctuation. Wednesday evening saw prices grow after EIA report on Crude Oil stocks, which a slip in stocks in the area of 7.2 million/barrel. Brent is currently at 51.20, WTI is currently around yesterday’s price of 48.60.

Stock markets experienced a slight influx;

FTSE100 -7456.5

CAC40 – 5192

DAX – 12293.0

DOW reached 21728.0

S&P500 – 2479.0

NQ – 5981.0

This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice.
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26 / 07 / 2017 | 普通

今天要注意的是:阿联酋切割产量,油会涨吗?

Although it’s not news anymore the dollar took another significant hit after the announcement that the Federal Reserve decided on keeping interest rates at their current levels. Unfortunately for the USD though the current levels of inflation are below the Fed’s target of 2%.

The more positive news from the US is that demand is surpassing the US’s oil production – at the moment it is actually the world’s leading exporter of crude. This is a substantial paradigm shift of the US as leading consumer and importer of global crude. Ironically the global demand for shale oil gapped waning domestic demand for the fuel.

Another reason the US has so enthusiastically increase crude output is to counter-balance the on-going saga of the OPEC+ agreement – that sought to restrict the production of oil, to exhaust crude reserves around the world ultimately bring the price of oil up. Beyond this with the primary role that the US has taken as a global leader in energy, investors and traders will be watching American production closely.

Today we can expect even more US-centric news with the second quarter Gross Domestic Product being released along with an estimate for the second quarter of 2017.   
 
This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice.
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