29 / 12 / 2017 | 技术分析

Technical Analysis 29.12.2017 - CAD/CHF: Ichimoku clouds

Let's look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is crossing Kijun-sen from above, the red line is directed downwards, while the blue one remains horizontal. Confirmative line Chikou Span is above the price chart, current cloud is ascending. The instrument is trading between Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines. The closest support level is Kijun-sen line (0.77839). One of the previous maximums of Chikou Span line is expected to be a resistance level (0.78142).

On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, the lines are horizontal . Confirmative line Chikou Span is above the price chart, current cloud is descending. The instrument has entered the cloud. The closest support level is the lower border of the cloud (0.77865). The closest resistance level is the lower border of the cloud (0.78309).


The Technical Analysis is provided by Marshall Gittler, an external service provider of an independent analytical company. Any views and opinions expressed are explicitly those of the writer. Any information contained in the article, is believed to be reliable, and has not been verified by STO and is not guaranteed to be accurate. References to specific products, are for illustrative purposes only and are not a form of solicitation, recommendation or investment advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.

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28 / 12 / 2017 | 技术分析

Technical Analysis - 28.12.2017 - EUR/JPY: Ichimoku clouds

Let's look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, the blue line is directed upwards, while the red one remains horizontal. Confirmative line Chikou Span is approaching the price chart from above, current cloud is ascending. The instrument has been corrected to the Tenkan-sen line. The closest support level is Tenkan-sen line (134.56). One of the previous maximums of Chikou Span line is expected to be a resistance level (134.82).



On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, both lines are directed upwards. Confirmative line Chikou Span has crossed the price chart from below, current cloud is ascending. The instrument is trading above Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines; the Bullish trend is still strong. The closest support level is Tenkan-sen line (133.49). One of the previous maximums of Chikou Span line is expected to be a resistance level (136.32).





The Technical Analysis is provided by Marshall Gittler, an external service provider of an independent analytical company. Any views and opinions expressed are explicitly those of the writer. Any information contained in the article, is believed to be reliable, and has not been verified by STO and is not guaranteed to be accurate. References to specific products, are for illustrative purposes only and are not a form of solicitation, recommendation or investment advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.

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27 / 12 / 2017 | 技术分析

Technical Analysis 27.12.2017 - CAD/CHF: Ichimoku clouds

Let's look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, the lines are horizontal . Confirmative line Chikou Span is above the price chart, current cloud is ascending. The instrument is trading above Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines; the Bullish trend is still strong. The closest support level is Tenkan-sen line (0.77672). One of the previous maximums of Chikou Span line is expected to be a resistance level (0.78266).



On the daily chart Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines have merged, the lines are horizontal . Confirmative line Chikou Span has crossed the price chart from below, current cloud is ascending. The instrument has entered the cloud. The closest support level is the lower border of the cloud (0.77835). The closest resistance level is the lower border of the cloud (0.78192).


The Technical Analysis is provided by Marshall Gittler an external service provider of an independent analytical company. Any views and opinions expressed are explicitly those of the writer. Any information contained in the article, is believed to be reliable, and has not been verified by STO and is not guaranteed to be accurate. References to specific products, are for illustrative purposes only and are not a form of solicitation, recommendation or investment advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.


 

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22 / 12 / 2017 | 技术分析

Technical Analysis 22.12.2017 – AUD/JPY Ichimoku Clouds

Let's look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, both lines are directed upwards. Confirmative line Chikou Span is above the price chart, current cloud is ascending. The instrument is trading above Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines; the Bullish trend is still strong. The closest support level is Tenkan-sen line (87.055). One of the previous maximums of Chikou Span line is expected to be a resistance level (87.950).



On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, both lines are directed upwards. Confirmative line Chikou Span is above the price chart, current cloud is ascending. The instrument has broken through the cloud and slowed down its growth. The closest support level is the lower border of the cloud (86.865). The closest resistance level is the lower border of the cloud (87.572).


The Technical Analysis is provided by Marshall Gittler an external service provider of an independent analytical company. Any views and opinions expressed are explicitly those of the writer. Any information contained in the article, is believed to be reliable, and has not been verified by STO and is not guaranteed to be accurate. References to specific products, are for illustrative purposes only and are not a form of solicitation, recommendation or investment advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
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22 / 12 / 2017 | 市场新闻

Fundamental Analysis 22.12.2017 – Market Outlook

Market Recap

The Catalonia crisis finally affected the euro after the three separatist parties won the Catalan regional parliamentary election. Not only did these three win, but the party of Carles Puigdemont, the ousted Catalan president who campaigned from exile from Brussels, emerged as the most popular of the three. That means he is in line to become head of the government. On the other hand, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s People’s Party finished in last place among the mainstream parties. The results were a major rebuke to the central government and its attempt to end the Catalan independence movement.

EUR is weaker against a generally lower USD as a result, but remains well within its usual trading range. There doesn’t seem to be a mechanism for Catalonia to withdraw from Spain. Furthermore, there’s no sign that this issue is spreading to other regions in Europe.

One indication that the market doesn’t perceive Catalonia to be an existential crisis for Europe is that CHF was the weakest currency on the day.

AUD and CAD on the other hand were both higher. Higher commodity prices, particularly iron ore, helped AUD, while yesterday’s better-than-expected retail sales figure and acceleration in inflation pushed CAD higher. CAD may get a further boost from today’s GDP figure (see below).

USD is slightly lower overall despite the fact that Congress passed a stopgap spending bill that will keep the US government running until Jan. 19th, thus eliminating the risk that the government would have to shut down over the Christmas holiday. US Q3 GDP was revised down, as was the core personal consumption expenditure deflator.

Today’s market

The final estimate of UK Q3 GDP isn’t forecast to be revised, but the 3rd estimate often is:  45% of the time since 2010, vs only 28% of the time for the 2nd estimate, no doubt because of more time for more data to become available. It’s been revised up 9 times and down 4 times. Thus there’s a good chance of a market-moving revision in the data one way or the other. The odds say revised up, which would be GBP-positive, but of course past performance is no guide to future performance, and certainly the economy after the Brexit vote isn’t the same as it was before.



US personal income and personal spending will be released, together with the personal consumption expenditure deflator, or PCE deflator. The FX market normally focuses on the PCE deflators, especially the core PCE deflator.  The core PCE deflator is the Fed’s designated gauge of inflation. When Fed officials say they want to get inflation back to 2%, that’s what they’re talking about. So if it does rise to 1.5% from 1.4% as expected, it’ll be one more notch on the way to achieving their target and a good reason why they can hike rates three times next year, as expected. That should shore up the dollar. On the other hand, the core PCE was revised down in yesterday’s revised Q3 GDP figure.



The US durable goods figure also comes out at the same time. Although several different figures are released at the same time, the market focuses on the main headline number (red in the graph), which does have a significant correlation with the subsequent movement of EUR/USD, particularly over the following hour. It’s expected to be substantially higher than last month. Combined with a rise in the core PCE deflator, the dollar could see an increase during New York time.

Canada’s monthly GDP figure is expected to rise at the same pace as the previous month, which would lift the year-on-year rate of change slightly. Growth is likely to be led by the service sector, as manufacturing was held back by strikes at the auto manufacturers. This figure is pretty good, given those strikes and also downtime for retooling among the auto manufacturers.

The question though is whether the stronger growth will affect expectations of monetary policy. Bank of Canada Gov. Poloz recently said that he wants the economy to “run hotter for a while” to absorb the remaining slack in the labor market. That means faster growth won’t necessarily lead to earlier rate hikes.



US new home sales are expected to be down in November (green line in the graph).This would be a big difference from existing home sales, which were up sharply in the month, but then again, since 2010 the two have only moved in the same direction 51% of the time so there isn’t necessarily a connection. In any case, last month’s new home sales figure was the highest since October 2007, and most people are aware that construction is being hampered by a shortage of materials and labor, so I don’t think the figure is likely to be negative for the dollar even if it does come in as expected. On the other hand, an upward surprise, following a rise in the PCE deflator and a good durable goods number, could encourage dollar bears to cover their positions before they break for the Christmas holiday.



Next week’s market

Well, as you can imagine, Christmas week usually isn’t that active. Tokyo and SE Asia are the only major centers open on Monday, and much of Europe as well as Australia and New Zealand are closed on Tuesday. Plus a lot of people take time off the rest of the week, so dealing rooms are thinly staffed even when they’re open. And no central bankers are making speeches, much less holding meetings.

Moreover, clients aren’t very active either.

Because of that, you might think that the market isn’t likely to be very volatile next week. And you would have been correct in 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2015, when volatility was much lower than normal – especially 2012, when it was the least volatile week of the year.

However, you would’ve been quite wrong in 2010, 2014 and 2016, when volatility was higher than average, particularly in 2014, when it was the most volatile week of the year.

Since there are far fewer market participants than normal during the last week, so as long as nothing happens, there’s little reason for rates to move. But on the other hand, if something does happen and all of a sudden a number of people want to buy or sell, there are far fewer people around who are willing to take the opposite side of the trade.

That’s why the week isn’t the week of the lowest average volatility in the year – that honor belongs to a week in August, again when many people are on vacation.



The last week of the year is the week with the widest range in ranking. It’s the only week that has been both the most volatile week of the year and the least volatile week (since 2010).



A word about the graphs: Currency volatility for each week is ranked from most volatile (100) to least volatile (0) of the year. We then take the average for 2010-2016. If volatility were distributed randomly, over time each week should have an average ranking around 50. The top graph shows the divergence from 50. Weeks with positive bars are usually more volatile than average, those with negative bars are usually less volatile. The second graph shows the difference between that week’s highest ranking and lowest ranking over the seven years in question.

The Fundamental Analysis are provided by Marshall Gittler an external service provider of an independent analytical company. Any views and opinions expressed are explicitly those of the writer. Any information contained in the article, is believed to be reliable, and has not been verified by STO and is not guaranteed to be accurate. References to specific products, are for illustrative purposes only and are not a form of solicitation, recommendation or investment advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.

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21 / 12 / 2017 | 技术分析

Technical Analysis 21.12.2017 - EUR/JPY: Ichimoku clouds

Let's look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, the red line is directed upwards, while the blue one remains horizontal. Confirmative line Chikou Span is above the price chart, current cloud is ascending. The instrument is trading above Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines; the Bullish trend is still strong. The closest support level is Tenkan-sen line (134.15). One of the previous maximums of Chikou Span line is expected to be a resistance level (134.75).



On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, the lines are horizontal . Confirmative line Chikou Span is above the price chart, current cloud is ascending. The instrument is trading above Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines; the Bullish trend is still strong. The closest support level is Tenkan-sen line (133.40). One of the previous maximums of Chikou Span line is expected to be a resistance level (134.60).



The Technical Analysis is provided by Marshall Gittler an external service provider of an independent analytical company. Any views and opinions expressed are explicitly those of the writer. Any information contained in the article, is believed to be reliable, and has not been verified by STO and is not guaranteed to be accurate. References to specific products, are for illustrative purposes only and are not a form of solicitation, recommendation or investment advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
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21 / 12 / 2017 | 市场新闻

Fundamental Analysis 21.12.2017 - Market Outlook

NZD performed well overnight. CAD gained on a much higher-than-expected wholesale trade survey, plus a further rise in the price of oil. JPY on the other hand did not perform well as the Bank of Japan kept its policy unchanged. They used slightly more optimistic language but noted that inflation expectations remain “in a weakening phase,” which rules out changing policy any time soon lest their actions confirm the decline in inflation expectations. With the Federal Reserve already tightening policy, the Bank of England having made one rate hike, and the European Central Bank moving in that direction, expectations of indefinite easing in Japan could be JPY-negative.

GBP also fell on several bits of negative news. The CBI retail survey was weak. EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier made clear that the EU doesn’t have any free trade agreement that would allow automatic access to the EU’s financial services market so the Bank of England’s offer to allow EU banks to operate in Britain after Brexit isn’t much of a help to the country. He also noted that with Brexit, the UK will be leaving around 750 agreements that the EU has signed with third countries.

Today’s market

The election for the new regional government in Catalonia will be held today. Following the referendum on whether to declare independence from Spain the Spanish government imposed direct rule over the region, dissolved the government and called this election. Senior figures in the separatist movement are either in exile or in prison awaiting trial for rebellion. A poll last week showed the anti-independence groups leading slightly with a combined 44.9% support against 43.8% for the separatists. A victory by the “remain” side would probably be positive for EUR.

The graph shows how the spread of Spanish bonds over German Bunds has remained unusually wide since the independence movement started to gain traction in October 2017. At the time this didn’t have much impact on EUR/USD, but there’s always the possibility that a more serious threat to Spanish unity could affect the currency.



The UK public sector net borrowing (excluding public sector banks) is forecast to be up slightly. This is another not-seasonally-adjusted indicator, so the key point here is how the 12-month moving average changes. The consensus forecast of GBP 9.0bn would bring the 12-month moving average to GBP 3.48bn, basically about the same as GBP 3.47bn in the previous month. A figure of around that level would probably be neutral for GBP.

US Q3 Gross Domestic Product is expected to be revised up a touch in this third and final revision.

The Philadelphia Fed survey is expected to be down slightly, in line with the fall in the Empire State manufacturing survey. It’s someone odd considering the jump in the Markit manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index for the month, but these indicators can diverge. This could be USD-negative.

Canada’s Consumer Price Index is expected to accelerate sharply on a year-on-year basis, and it’s not all oil – the core Consumer Price Index is forecast to accelerate, too. This raises the possibility that core inflation may hit the middle of the 1% to 3% target earlier than the Bank of Canada currently envisions. That would be positive for the CAD.



Canada’s retail sales will also be announced at the same time. The Forex market watches the figure for sales ex-autos most closely. It’s expected to be up slightly, which could also boost CAD.



Eurozone consumer confidence broke above zero last month and is forecast to move slightly higher this month. It’s the first time this index has been above zero since early 2001. The figure is a diffusion index; that is, people are asked about their financial situation and the general economic situation and whether conditions have improved (or going to improve), just improved, stayed the same, just worsened or worsened. These are given weights of +1, +½, 0, –½, -1 respectively and the balance is reported as a diffusion index, meaning the number of those saying conditions have worsened is subtracted from those saying they have improved. Thus the move into positive indicates that the number of people saying conditions have improved is greater than those saying they’ve worsened. A further move into positive territory should be good for the euro.



The Fundamental Analysis are provided by Marshall Gittler an external service provider of an independent analytical company. Any views and opinions expressed are explicitly those of the writer. Any information contained in the article, is believed to be reliable, and has not been verified by STO and is not guaranteed to be accurate. References to specific products, are for illustrative purposes only and are not a form of solicitation, recommendation or investment advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.

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20 / 12 / 2017 | 技术分析

Technical Analysis 20.12.2017 - AUD/JPY: Ichimoku clouds

Let's look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, the lines are horizontal . Confirmative line Chikou Span is above the price chart, current cloud is ascending. The instrument is trading above Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines; the Bullish trend is still strong. The closest support level is Tenkan-sen line (86.390). One of the previous maximums of Chikou Span line is expected to be a resistance level (86.524).



On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line has crossed Kijun-sen from below, the red line is directed upwards, while the blue one remains horizontal. Confirmative line Chikou Span is approaching the price chart from below, current cloud is descending. The instrument is trading above Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines; the Bullish trend is still strong. One of the previous minimums of Chikou Span line is expected to be a support level (86.032). The closest resistance level is the lower border of the cloud (86.704).



The Technical Analysis is provided by Marshall Gittler an external service provider of an independent analytical company. Any views and opinions expressed are explicitly those of the writer. Any information contained in the article, is believed to be reliable, and has not been verified by STO and is not guaranteed to be accurate. References to specific products, are for illustrative purposes only and are not a form of solicitation, recommendation or investment advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.

 
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20 / 12 / 2017 | 市场新闻

Fundamental Analysis 20.12.2017 - Market Outlook

USD was generally lower on a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” response to the passing of the US bill (although it hasn’t passed entirely yet). There may also be some belated realization that this bill won’t necessarily boost the US economy that much but it will cause the US budget deficit to increase.

The question now is, what comes next for the US? US President Donald Trump is now promising a “soon to be submitted infrastructure plan” for “roads, bridges, tunnels, railways (and more).” The budget that he submitted back in May 2017 included a $1tn plan for private/public infrastructure investment. Now, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating that the tax cuts would increase the deficit by $1.45tn over the next ten years, it remains to be seen just how much money is left for infrastructure spending. It may be that disappointment over the lack of any direct fiscal stimulus could dampen sentiment for USD.

NZD did not perform well. Prices fell at the dairy auction yesterday, on top of which the trade deficit for November 2017 was more than double what the market has expected (NZD -1.193bn vs NZD -550mn expected, NZD -843mn previous).

GBP fell too after Britain’s cabinet met yesterday for the first full discussion of what kind of an outcome it wants from the Brexit negotiations. They agreed to demand a bespoke arrangement that would be “significantly more ambitious” than the EU’s agreement with Canada. GBP recovered somewhat after the BBC reported that the Bank of England will unveil plans on Wednesday 27th December 2017 to allow European banks operating in the wholesale market in Britain to continue to operate under existing rules even if no deal is reached. That’s great, but of course the more important question is whether UK banks will be able to operate on the Continent under existing rules.

JPY was lower ahead of tonight’s Bank of Japan meeting.

Today’s market

The big event of the day takes place overnight, when the Bank of Japan Policy Board meets. As with the other recent central bank meetings, the results in terms of interest rates aren’t in doubt.

In fact, the market’s assessment of Japanese monetary policy has been quite stable. There’s been no substantial change for several months in the market’s estimates of the likelihood of a rate hike. Core inflation is only 0.8% yoy, well below the Bank of Japan’s 2.0% target, so there’s no hope of a rate hike. But on the other hand, there are serious concerns that sending rates further into negative territory could weaken the banks and make them even less likely to lend. Thus the Bank of Japan seems stuck on hold for the time being.



Since recent meetings haven’t changed policy, they’ve been accompanied by less than usual volatility.

There is one dissenter on the Board, Goushi Kataoka, who was previously an economist at Mitsubishi UFJ. In October 2017 he voted against the proposal to keep policy unchanged, because he wanted the Bank of Japan to start buying longer-dated bonds to bring down yields at the long end.

On other fronts, the US Senate passed the tax bill, but the House vote was deemed improper. The bill will have to have some minor alterations and will be sent back for another vote today.

The European Commission (EC) is due to publish its directives for the Brexit transition phase today.

Turning to the indicators, the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) retailing survey will be released. The diffusion index is expected to be slightly lower, which could be negative for GBP.

Later in the day, Bank of England Governor. Mark Carney plus several of his Bank of England colleagues will appear before the Treasury Select Committee to discuss the November 2017 Financial Stability Report. Mark Carney has been relatively upbeat about the recent progress on Brexit and about the economy, particularly after a slightly more fiscally expansive budget, so he can be expected to be in an optimistic mood. That could also be GBP-positive.

US existing home sales are forecast to rise in November 2017, as indicated by a large increase in pending home sales in September 2017. Sales would be higher except supply is relatively low (3.9 months’ worth of unsold homes, vs a more normal 6 month inventory) and prices are high, which of course indicates strong demand. This could be USD-positive (New home sales, also shown on this graph, will be released on Friday 22nd December 2017.).



Overnight, New Zealand announces its Q3 GDP. Growth is forecast to slow owing to weak output in the primary sector (milk and oil & gas production especially). Furthermore, Q2 saw a spike in growth from higher milk production and an increase in tourism associated with a rugby tour, which obviously wasn’t repeated on Q3. The figure could be mildly negative for NZD as a reflex response to a slowdown in growth.



The Fundamental Analysis are provided by Marshall Gittler an external service provider of an independent analytical company. Any views and opinions expressed are explicitly those of the writer. Any information contained in the article, is believed to be reliable, and has not been verified by STO and is not guaranteed to be accurate. References to specific products, are for illustrative purposes only and are not a form of solicitation, recommendation or investment advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.


 


 


 

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19 / 12 / 2017 | 技术分析

Technical Analysis 19.12.2017 - EUR/JPY: Ichimoku clouds

Let's look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, the lines are horizontal. Confirmative line Chikou Span is below the price chart, current cloud is descending. The instrument is trading below Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines; the Bearish trend is still strong. The closest support level is Tenkan-sen line (132.543). The closest resistance level is Kijun-sen line (132.903).



On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, the lines are horizontal . Confirmative line Chikou Span is above the price chart, current cloud is ascending. The instrument is trading around upper border of the cloud. The closest support level is the lower border of the cloud (131.929). The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line (132.961).



This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice.
 
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