31 / 08 / 2017 | 市场新闻

What to Look out for Today – Gasoline’s Up, Trumps Tax Reform and USD Strengthens

Gasoline has seen its highest price in the last 2 years – as refineries in Texas, including the US’s largest, shutdown due to Hurricane Harvey. The fossil fuel jumped up to $2 a gallon after almost a quarter of US refinery output – more than 4 million barrels a day - completely ceased. This caused oil prices to transversely go down, due to lowered US demand. Analysts around the world are expecting this effect to hold for a few months, some even expect a longer-lasting effect. The total speculated economic damage from Hurricane Harvey is said to reach $160 billion.

After the Trump administration’s failure to reverse or restructure the colloquially known Obama-care, markets are very apprehensive whether the new presidency’s tax reform will be able to make it through the Senate. This is also compounded by the fact that the policy seeks to lower corporate taxes from 35 to 15, as lawmakers speculate that 25 percent would be challenging. According to the Trump administration this should boost and grow the job market, helping in turn the middle class – which sounds eerily similar to trickle-down economics, which inefficacy has been proven in past years and could even potentially be damaging to the economy at large.

Safe havens seem to continue dropping as the USD stabilized, gaining 0.016% against the JPY trading 110.4825. USD also a very meager gain against CHF (in the area of 0.002%) and is currently trading 0.9638.
Today’s economic calendars has significant data releases including Germany’s Unemployment Change which came in under expectations at -5K instead of -6K but still a substantial drop from the previous -9K. The German unemployment rate stayed stable at 5.7%. The EU’s CPI (YoY) for August is also scheduled at 09.00 (GMT) – which is speculated to increase from the previous 1.3% to 1.4%. The US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure – Price Index (YoY) for July is slated to be released at 12.30 (GMT), which is forecasted to fall slightly to 1.4% from the previous 1.5% the month to month report for July for the same index is expected to remain unchanged.

This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice.
 
 
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31 / 08 / 2017 | 市场新闻

Fundamental Analysis 2017.08.31 – US Data Pushes USD up

Yesterday the dollar gained against its currency counter-parts, a trend supported by macroeconomic data. ADP Employment Change surpassed expectations by far, 237K compared to the previous figure of 201K. GDP also experienced a significant increase in the region of 2.7% in Q2 up from the previous 2.6%.

EUR/USD dropped by 0.85% trading at 1.1868. Most investors will be on the look-out for the EU CPI scheduled to be released at 11:00 (GMT+2), and US Initial Jobless Claims publication slated to be released at 14:30 (GMT+2).

GBP/USD pair held strong even in lieu of positive US data. After a slight dip to 1.2877 the pair returned to the previous day’s highs of 1.2922.

USD/JPY traded at 110.50 after growing 0.27%. It received a further boost by Japan’s Industrial Production which came in under forecasts. Its MoM was –0.8% last month and YoY also dropped, to 4.7% from the 5.5% in June.

AUD/USD  went down by 0.68% reaching 0.7897.

Metals are continuing their downward vector. Gold dropped 0.50% 1302.80. Silver lost 0.40% and is trading 17.32.

The change in EIA Crude Oil Stocks pulled the price of crude down, the report showed a decline of 5.4 million barrels a week as production ramped up to 9.53 million barrels/day. This information though reflected the pre-Harvey situation of Oil stocks. The incapacitated oil refineries actually had the opposite effect – causing oil stocks to increase due to diminished demand of crude. This caused Brent to lose 1.71%reaching 50.62. WTI also dropped, to 46.17 after losing 0.80%.

US stock is trading in the green. The Dow is in the area of 21912.0 after going up 0.19%. NQ also went up by 1.36% to 5944.1. S&P gained 0.50% to reach 2457.9. The FTSE reached 7384.4 after growing 0.27%. The CAC also went up by 0.48% trading at 5082.1. The DAX climbed to 12073.3 after growing by 0.68%.

This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice.
 
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31 / 08 / 2017 | 技术分析

Technical Analysis 2017.08.31 – USD/JPY USD/CHF Just a Little More Risk?

USD/JPY
It seems as though USD/JPY is in correction.

B’s higher level wave c is forming . Wave (ii) of c, seems to be pointing towards a local correction, having reached its end. If this speculation is validated the currency pair has the potential to fall to 107.50sooner than later. 110.95 is deemed as critical.


 
 

 
USD/CHF
Current trend
US gained against CHF yesterday, August 30, showing that the bullish trend has inertia. US macroeconomic statistics bolster the growth of the dollar, while Swiss data was murky at best.

US GDP for the second quarter went up by 3.0% YoY compared to the last 2.6%. Private sector jobs did better than the previous month, reaching 237K from 201K according to the ADP report.

Today (Aug. 31st ) traders will be looking for data on personal income and expenditure for July at 12:30. Jobless claims and housing sales will also be points of interest.

Support and resistance
In the D1 chart, the Bollinger Bands show a relatively flat dynamic. We can see the range of the currency pair . MACD histogram is over the signal line a positive indicator for the pair. Stochastic is also holding an its upward vector, but it is likely overbought at this point – due to its rapid growth.

USD/CHF Resistance levels: 0.9643, 0.9666, 0.9695, 0.9724, 0.9770.
USD/CHF Support levels: 0.9600, 0.9575, 0.9548, 0.9496.


 

 
This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice.
 
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30 / 08 / 2017 | 市场新闻

What to Look out for Today – USD Recovers as N. Korea Threat Subsides

The USD and Asian stock saw a marked increase as the threat of N. Korean missile strikes softened in investors minds – Wall Street also experienced a stronger session closing. The dollar recovered slightly after a drop in its price to a two and half year low.

European stocks also seemed to recover slightly with the FTSE 100 opening at 7.337.43 and currently seeing a 0.35% gain trading at 7,36330. The Dax also saw and increase in the region of 0.51% trading at 12,026.45 after closing at 11.945.88 the previous session.

Although yesterday safe-havens seemed to be the plat du jour - today the strengthening dollar shows investors adding a bit more risk to their positions. Secondary contributors to the USD price was Trump’s nominal reaction to the Pyongyang threats, significantly positive consumer confidence index (reaching its highest in the past five months), labor market and house prices data.

This trend might continue if the US second quarter gross domestic product release is also positive along with the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures – both scheduled to be published at 12.30 pm GMT.

This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice.
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30 / 08 / 2017 | 市场新闻

Fundamental Analysis 2017.08.30 – US Dollar Recovers after Missile Crisis

Yesterday’s trading day saw US dollar gain against other G10 currencies.
This was largely due to the lack of macroeconomic data other than the Consumer Confidence Index (which was the highest it’s been in last 5 months) to pull the USD down and as markets sighed in relief over the N. Korean missile crisis.

ADP Employment Change publication is slated to be released at 14:15 (GMT+2) – forecasted at 185K up from the previous 178K and the Second Quarter Gross Domestic Product is scheduled to be released at 15:30 (GMT+2) which is also forecasted to increase from 2.6% to 2.7%. If expectations meet the actual figures then the USD will definitely be positively affected.

EUR/USD tested the max level of 1.2069 the pair went into correction 1.2970, which also seems to be its consolidation probably as they wait for today’s data releases – EU Consumer Confidence (at 11.00 +2 GMT) and German Inflation Rate (at 14.00 GMT +2). GBP/USD fell from a high of 1.2978 to 1.2927 as the USD went into correction. Mortgage Approvals and UK Consumer Credit is scheduled at 10:30 GMT+2.

USD/JPY saw a significant increase on Tuesday. It rose 0.61% reaching 109.90.

AUD/USD went up by 0.55% trading in the area of 0.7955, Australia’s Construction Work Done surpassing expectations largely contributed to this dynamic. In its second quarter, an increase of 9.3% was experienced in July up from the meager 0.9% of June.

Metal have been slipping since the USD went into correction. Gold lost 0.27%, after its multi-day climb 1311.52. Silver lost 0.63% and fell to 17.40.

Oil also fell slightly. Brent slipped to 51.36. WTI is in the region of 46.50 after losing 0.98%.

US stock is finally in the green. The Dow is currently at 21886.0 after opening 0.57% over yesterday’s closing price. NQ increased 0.98% to 5872.5. S&P also went up but by 0.66% and is currently trading at 2449.5.

European Stock was mixed. The FTSE opened at 7367.3. The CAC reached 5065.4 after a gain in the region of 0.28%. The  DAX lost 0.60% slipping to 12018.7.

This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice.
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30 / 08 / 2017 | 技术分析

Technical Analysis 2017.08.30 - WTI Crude Oil

Current trend
We have seen Oil prices dropping the last three trading sessions. Yesterday WTI experienced a slip of 0.98% falling 46.50. As a result of multiple refineries in Texas completely ceasing production (due to Hurricane Harvey) a decline in demand and of course a drop in the price of crude was observed.  This affect was so profound that Stateside production went down by 15% or 2.5 mln barrels causing a relatively unexpected rise of oil reserves around the country.

The US Department of Energy report on oil reserve changes will be highly anticipated data today – if the pace of reserve depletion slows or there is growth – then WTI might experience pressure again.
Support and resistance
At this point technical indicators are showing that the downward trend has significant inertia. Bollinger Bands have a downwards vector. The MACD is showing growth within the negative zone showing that sellers' are holding their influence on the commodity.

WTI Support levels: 46.00, 45.00, 44.00.
WTI Resistance levels: 47.08, 47.90, 48.85.
https://media.clawshorns.com/uploads/files/f08f1863a9a73652a5bd0fca35dd4183.jpg
 
This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice.
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29 / 08 / 2017 | 市场新闻

【每日市场分析】美元遭遇创纪录下跌

美元本季度 表现 不好- 政治丑闻,外交后果,总统声明可疑,经济数据混杂,保守的联邦货币政策和多特朗普政府的辞职和解雇(从特朗普就职后几乎达到二十人)对货币的持续波动。

市场已经以美元为单位进行了上下的试探,但是今天在宣布新的朝鲜导弹发射实际上影响了美国的盟友(战略,经济和工业方面)日本 - 美元跌至四个月低点。

在日元方面,瑞士法郎(作为避风港)和欧元(作为一种更稳定的主要货币)增长 - 日元目前经历了0.143%的小幅下跌(交易在0.0092),但从本月初至现在就已经上涨了1.52%。瑞郎上涨0.231%,报1.0522,涨幅为1.55%。目前欧元似乎在增长0.236%(交易于1.992),自月初以来上涨1.19%。

虽然哈维飓风从飓风降到了热带风暴,但极度恶劣的天气造成每天生产量损失超过五十万桶。世界各地的分析师都在猜测,这一规模的生产下降势必对整个市场产生长期的影响。

虽然所有这些实质性事件都在发生,市场静观其变的等待特朗普发表声明,可能进一步加剧美国与朝鲜之间的摩擦- 促使美元进一步下滑。

STO投资研究室的个人观点和意见,并不构成投资建议。
 
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29 / 08 / 2017 | 市场新闻

Fundamental Analysis 2017.08.29 – Markets React to N. Korean Missile Launch with Risk-off USD

A renewed N. Korean threat – a missile was launched over Japan causing a risk-off market response. As expected safe havens such as CHF, JPY and metals benefited from the reaction, as more risky currencies – like the Australian dollar– lost. Asian stock markets, also as expected, slipped during early this morning, as bond yields also dropped.

EUR/USD trend hasn’t changed as the USD weakens the EUR seems to strengthen.

The trend is unlikely to change unless something comes to affect the EU – as the US was affected. This could be in the form of diplomatic frictions, political instability (most likely pertaining to Brexit) or negative fundamental/technical data.

GBP (the loser of the year) actually managed to gain across its counterpart USD. This could even be considered a paradox considering yesterday’s less than positive Brexit negotiations. Both Germany and France are advocating coming to an agreement over the UK’s obligations towards the one-currency union, before any trade agreements are even discussed and Michel Barnier, Chief Brexit negotiator for the EU, stated that the UK should approach Brexit with much more urgency. Of course an unsubstantiated.

Markets reaction to Hurricane Harvey seems like a mixed bag. The most significant effect is putting multiple oil refineries out of commission. As a result gasoline went up substantially in US. The inverse of that dynamic is a lowered demand for crude, causing the gap between the prices of WTI and Brent to widen. This gap is of course closely correlated to the adverse weather conditions and could easily turn around once skies clear.  




Today’s market
On the other side of the Atlantic, on-going negotiations between the UK and EU – should affect GBP with less influence on the EU. The first leg of the talks yesterday – didn’t go as well as the UK negotiators would have liked and any further news will also likely be negative which obviously will negatively impact GBP.

When Wall Street finally wakes, traders will be on the lookout for Canada’s industrial product prices but they won’t be expecting positive results, the speculation is that it will be significantly lower than the previous report period. This is on-top of the previous month’s 1.0% drop – bringing the focus on the 1.2% YoY, inflation – and fueling speculation whether it can keep up with the BoC’s target of 1% - 3%. This type of sentiment is unlikely to be beneficial to CAD.







This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice.
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29 / 08 / 2017 | 技术分析

Technical Analysis 2017.08.29 – N. Korea Launch Shakes Japan and Markets

Current trend
Gold experienced its highest price since November 2016, when markets opened this morning – largely due to N. Korea launching a missile over Japan.

Although markets hoped for monetary policy news - Fed’s head Janet Yellen disappointed again with her Jackson Hole summit speech. Her statement contained no references to balance sheet reduction or monetary policy.  This reinforced the USD risk-off sentiment markets were already dealing with. ECB President Mario Draghi’s speech motivated traders’ rush to havens as he pointed out that a conservative monetary policy is the best course of action at the moment. Further elaborating on the topic Draghi said that a mild monetary policy that most regulators have adapted recently are showing positive results, resulting in actual growth in the Eurozone.

Support and resistance
We can see Bollinger Band growth in the daily chart. The price range seems to be expanding.
MACD histogram is also growing, with the signal line above it. Correction may be immanent.
Stochastic is currently in the overbought region, confirming or at least reinforcing the speculation of a probable correctional movement.

XAU/USD Support levels: 1307.75, 1300.44, 1295.85, 1291.71, 1287.05 (the level of August 25).
XAU/USD Resistance levels: 1317.77, 1324.07.



This article comprises the personal view and opinion of the STO Investment Research Desk and at no time should be construed as Investment Advice.
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28 / 08 / 2017 | 市场新闻

【每日市场分析】哈维损害美国炼油厂生产

由于欧佩克决定削减石油产量,美国已经试图加大自身的生产力度,不幸的是天气有所不同。哈维飓风已经通过美国海湾地区,一个集中精炼炼油厂的地区来破坏破坏性的地带。这些设施由于恶劣的天气条件而被迫关闭 - 中断生产。

市场很容易回应这一影响,导致汽油飞速上涨至两年高位,布伦特原油期货在利比亚管道堵塞的消息之后也是如此。另一方面,美国原油略有下滑,假设由于沿墨西哥湾沿岸的炼油厂无能为力,需求将会较低。
一些分析师甚至猜测德克萨斯炼油厂的长期影响。

尽管哈维似乎主宰了最新的消息 - 交易者预料其中,杰克逊霍尔峰会也令美元下滑。矛盾之处在于,这不是新闻的结果 - 而是因为缺乏这个结果。联储主席耶伦·雅伦(Janet Yellen)对与利率或货币政策有关的任何事情都保持紧张态度。

日本央行行长黑田隆彦在杰克逊霍尔峰会表示反兴起说,日本中央银行有可能保持宽松的货币政策,因为经济的增长不可能持续或长久。

当平壤在同一个周末发射三枚导弹时,美国和朝鲜之间的紧张局势继续下去,没有美国的巨大反应,除了国务卿蒂尔森(Tillerson)说,他们将继续试图外交式地扩散这种情况。

STO投资研究室的个人观点和意见,并不构成投资建议。
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